Is a recession coming reddit. There was one in 2001, 2008, 2018, 2020 and every .
Is a recession coming reddit Arguably not as telegraphed as the mid 90s recession… which never happened. What I mean by priced in is that the value of shares may already take into account a possible recession. If home prices were to drop and I want to wait or make sure I don't miss it when it's happening, how can I track it? Simply watch house prices on Zillow or Redfin or is there a better way to know that home prices have been dropping and it's an ideal time to buy? Dec 31, 2024 路 A truck tailgate with an image of Donald Trump and the word "recession" in large type on August 25, 2020, in Washington D. UAE economy has a low correlation with US economy. It might come this year, and if it does, that will suck, quite a lot. Could the market go up another 5% from here? Yes. We will start to coming out of a recession when rates start to decline. In my area, there is a lot of work on the books for years so it’s looking good (Chicago region) Recessions often take everyone by surprise. Definitely not before 2025. Credit card debt exceeding record levels, record high interest rates, late payment on vehicles climbing to a record level, mass layoff of workers due to AI, cardboard box For example markets are forward looking, and since the recession is expected it may already be priced in. When the market goes into price correction, it takes only a couple of days or weeks to correct but what comes after that is time correction which takes years to complete because the Market goes into a consolidation phase and this is more frustrating than price correction. You may have been too young during the great recession to take advantage of the situation, so start positioning yourself now cos you get a shot at redemption. No one can time any of it. Like 4chan found a Bloomberg Terminal. However, this has been the case for the past few yesrs and my take is that when everyone expects a recession we won’t actually have one. The Fed has, essentially, indicated that their hiking cycle is over. that is not the case right now. At the bottom of 2008s recession it was that fundamentals of the capitalistic world were changing and stocks will never recover. Since the crash of '08 with a subsequent miraculous bull run, it seems everyone is in constant anticipation that something will break it, and a recession will be upon us, perhaps resembling somewhat like the last crash. Here are what some individual financial experts have predicted recently about the 2025 economy. Others remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the markets. The traditional definition of a recession is two quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth. The U. I would hold mostly cash right now and wait till the inflation is finally coming down somwhat to the normal to go long on stocks. Same level of bankruptcies as we were in 2007. But I'd rather be in a growing economy and have to wait longer for my stuff then be in recession where I can get everything fast, but can't afford it. economy is on relatively solid footing heading into 2025. At any rate, because 3rd quarter growth was positive, we are not currently in a recession by any definition. A central repository for questions about economic theory, research, and policy. Whilst the "other" article is a prediction from two Bloomberg economists, that the prob is 100%. Or check it out in the app stores Then yes, a recession is coming. Warren Buffett's golden rule: "Rule No. The funny thing is that people under 28 or 30 have no personal experience of a recession economy. Now demand inflation would indicate a future recession because the theoretical way we would address this is lowering demand, or lowering the money supply in the economy, which would be done by causing a recession. Reddit's largest economics community. But when will this prophesied recession come true? At this point, even as a doomer myself that sees this market as proped up by bullshit and speculation, I'm sick of the articles. Buying long term treasuries DURING a recession would be a bad time to buy because they would be expensive. Babe the recession is coming soon I swear believe me this time it’s right around the corner it’s almost here I swear keeep waiting it’s almost here it’s coming GET READY omg it’s about to happen almost there here it co— I’ve been reading this headline for 2 years… maybe it won’t? So, we're in a recession (per capita) as opposed to a recession (technical) or recession (GDP). Is a recession coming. However property remains high but property it’s lagging indicator and may take a year or two to show up, if and when we see property market prices drop then we will be knee deep in recession, with increasing unemployment rate. Could the market retract from here? Yes. In the last recession, I was lucky enough to keep my job, so the for me the recession meant that the stock market was stagnant or lost money. It's also why much of the opposition to immigrants in the United States is performative and political theater. Additionally, I am not talking about the UK, I am talking about a recession in the United States, which, again, there is no indication on any metric that a recession is coming. Do you think it will have the same impact as the tech bubble ? For me, I am getting a paycut because the compensation I just received is not as much as the jump in HOA, the insurance, the groceries, the restaurant and everything else. 2 is never forget Rule… The outlook with the Chinese economy is very bleak. A real recession is way worse than a per capita recession. I keep coming across articles on the internet that a recession is coming. Recession is not something like getting a period that’s over due馃槄 and no America is not overdue for a recession, Canada and most liberal countries however are going to be economically challenged for a while but American economy is going to get stronger at the expense of other countries. 1 is never lose money. Those are the ones that fall the hardest. But while inflation has cooled, Nov 6, 2024 路 While experts can make forecasts about where the market and economy may be headed, it's impossible to say for certain what will happen. Recession is defined as when there are 2 consecutive quarters of declining revenue. But if you're younger and still saving for long-term then I mean I guess stocks and mutual funds. This loose fi Anything speculative is not worth holding onto during a recession. It might have already started. recession seem low as the Federal Reserve begins a cycle of interest-rate cuts, the nation's top economists say, but a weakening jobs market and rising credit delinquencies could Recession is still possible of course, but not particularly likely anytime soon. The curve inversion usually predicts a recession 12-18 months in the future and not when it happens. Just looking for thought process and planning ideas. 8k in just 10 years. , and there was just a constant stream of bad news. Nobody knows and if somebody says they do, they lie. Even in the couple actual recessions there were people saying how it was only going to get worse next year. There's a recession coming soon, and I think it will happen to coincide with 2023-2024, however no one can truly control an economy, they can only push, and nudge it here or there. Serving as a central forum for users to read, discuss, and learn more about topics related to the economic discipline. The consumer is and always will be very strong in America. Republicans HATED that Clinton raised taxes back, mostly on the rich. It has been known for decades that one of the easiest ways to tackle illegal immigration would be to go after the employers who employ them - something that politicians who are keenly aware of how important immigrants are to driving the economy have avoided even talking about, even as Recession is a healthy economic cycle, but it has been never really came the past 10 years because the Fed keeps printing money to the avoid a recession. It is possible that might trigger severe recession or even depression. Whether it’s deep or shallow, long or short, is up for debate, but the idea that the economy is going into a period of contraction is pretty much th I've heard that the collective memory is poor in that we tend to believe the past will repeat itself. Economists have been forecasting a recession for months now, and most see it starting early next year. 5% range on a 12 month basis). Fed would keep rates higher for longer, so long as anything is not broken (unemployment rate being one of metrics which is low at the moment), but cut rates if the economy takes a nose-dive, yet the market is anticipating rate cuts (a la the current rally from the most recent Fed pivot)——it’s It seems that if a recession is coming then it would be the most telegraphed, foreshadowed recession in the history of the stock market. I keep hearing of a coming recession. ” Of course this is all speculation. We’ve been in a recession. This is not a sign of a recession, this is sign of a healthy economy. The difference between a recession and a depression is in a recession your neighbour loses his job and in a depression you lose yours. Has anyone thought about moving money to G fund to lock in the gains from the past year and for me that was around 26% in gains. But recession might come this year still. Recession: some dudes (NBER) in the govt say "it's a recession". C. Saw an article saying FL housing market was the biggest bubble and was cooling. There's been rumor of a recession going on over a year now, with no recession happening. As others have said, a recession is defined as a country's GDP falling for two quarters in a row. A recession is determined by the NBER. That being said, EVEN better advice for 99% of investors is "DO NOT TRY AND TIME THE MARKET". The quote by Keynes that: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Hell, even per-capita GDP doesn't mean much in parts of the US. Not so much a prediction, but rather, projecting that fear, and trying to induce a recession. My mom asked me where she should put her money given the upcoming recession and I saw a number of similar posts on various Reddit subs. Got no clue regarding how to determine an approaching recession though. Supply chain issues and unemployment rising is not good at all. Those people are mostly locked out of houses. 464 votes, 201 comments. In this case you can pick up wonderful companies at excellent prices. They will have the most growth during recovery. Cycle history says it should have ended already. Nov 6, 2024 路 Some experts are calling for a recession in the next year. That’s what I thought! But he was more worried about a recession coming soon as in the end of this year or so and was cautioning me about investing now, perhaps in favour of waiting to invest long term starting next year if a recession were forthcoming. It really feels like they (the powers that be) are trying to convince everyone we will have a recession. Historically in periods of no recession the Fed is likely to keep raising interest rates. Inflation and unemployment keep getting lower. If you do, then all the people in charge would see it coming too, and they would try their best to prevent it. Supply and demand inflation. What I think is going to create severe problems in the coming years is increasing automation due to AI advances. Jun 24, 2022 路 The recession at the height of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 went on for just two months, making it the shortest ever, even though the downturn was a brutal experience for many people. In a technical sense, the US already had a recession last year and it recovered. It may be a factor, but COVID supply chain disruptions and the failure of central banks to act sooner seem like the bigger factors. Never attempt to time the market. People I knew that lost their jobs had a hard time finding a new one because no one was hiring or expanding their business. Not joking. Search Reddit for "Deutsche Bank recession" and you can see they have been dishing this prediction out for years (predicting within a year or two there will be a recession, not a bunch of predictions for late 2023 as this latest one says). The goal of /r/Movies is to provide an inclusive place for discussions and news about films with major releases. In a recession, you should be buying equities. Jan 13, 2025 路 Where some people see ebbs and flows in the economy, others see red flags for recession. When the Fed cuts its rarely incrementally, rather, all at once in response to an emergency. Investing in a company that is losing money means you can lose money extra fast. For example, NAB just posted a very good result of over 13% increase in profit over the same period last year, plus fewer overdue loans, plus a higher dividend, plus good balance sheet, plus good PE figures. It's because this recession is not hurting as bad as the 2008, or a normal recession, yet. Submissions should be for the purpose of informing or initiating a discussion, not just to entertain readers. However the USA changed the definition of a recession so we are technically not in a recession. Interest rates have been held artificially low for a long time. Recession signs: People are talking about a possible new Great Depression because of money ups and downs, prices going up, and unsure jobs. The irony is that by the time the market peaked in early 2000 very few expected a recession because everyone was making a killing in the stock market, the hype around the internet was huge and the market had been running for years and years. economy will fall into a With economy pointing to possible recession would it be a good idea to move some money to G fund for 6 to 12 months . The BEST time to buy stocks is during the heat of a recession IF you have enough time for the market to correct. The hope, of course, is that the fed can manage a soft landing and get inflation controlled without triggering a recession, but we will see. Because zero is greater than negative, some people feel safer owning gold vs stocks during such times. And yet … as of today the S&P is up 16. I was taking to a friend and he was saying that even though the government has no control over the federal reserve’s actions (in theory), the democrats will do everything in their power to ensure that no severe recession hits until after AFTER the election season in the fall of next year. inflation over time and all that but that isn't what determines whether we are in a recession or not. The GDP data is freely available, as you can see the EU is technically not in a recession but very close to it (0 to 0. Or it doesn't come for next 10 years. Pretty likely within 60 years there's gonna be at least one recession. Not only the lags of rising interest rates are taking longer, the economy has been doing well due to trillions spent as part of the inflation reduction act, infrastructure bill resulting in government job Get the Reddit app Scan this QR code to download the app now. There is an aging population problem in Quebec and Ontario, but this is something we know it was coming for decade. It could hit in 6 months. A slowdown from previous growth rates, sure, but growth nonetheless is still forecasted for 2023. ) At the moment you've got some issues because rates went up a bunch over the last couple of years (especially 2022) and people kept thinking "they'll overshoot and it will cause a big slowdown so they'll have to The problem is the job market crashes for the poorest first. If the Fed actually plans to cut at all it’ll likely be due to recession, or worse. The same survey placed the likelihood of a recession at just 30% last June. The latter was always in the crosshairs once the free-money taps dries up. Media are talking about the lack of worker. Ironically, this “resilience” in the economy actually hampers a lot of mba pipelines because rates will stay higher for longer which stunts a lot of corporate investment and M&A activities. The reports from the previous months show consumers are still buying at a high rate, prices are going up because supplies are still low after covid shutdown. Do I agree that there will be a white collar recession coming overall? There isn't agreement that a 'big recession' is coming If a recession 'is coming', it actually already started months ago Recessions can be shallow and there is quite a bit of hope for a 'soft landing' Recessions are always announced many months after they begin, in fact most recessions were declared well into the recovery period of the recession But during a recession, many businesses lose money which means they return negative yield. Most people will not see any direct impact of a recession - if they have a job which is not related to economic turnover. Since the Fed started raising interest rates, everyone expected a recession to hit us by now which makes me think it won’t happen or it will be more mild than people think. Clover Health is the future of medicare, with a mission to improve every life through smart, preventative healthcare. Maybe a recession is coming, maybe it's not. They have basically been slowly turning into big North Korea thanks to Xi JinPing. Conventional wisdom is that there is a recession cominguntil the day after if it doesn't come and they will all hop on the same wagon telling us why. After that if the Recession has started the prediction is wrong. Maybe in 6 years. 0. There will be a recession, the markets are crashing hard, tech companies are getting hit hard, etc This is purely to have a discussion and talk about the future of tech that might emerge out of this recession. The only reason the recession didn’t last longer is because the fed immediately went from 2-3% rates to 0% overnight. (The official call of recession is typically delayed because a slight downward blip is not a recession - it needs to be sustained. true. No matter what anyone tells you, they cannot predict the future. From your perspective, you can increase your We all know that 2024 is a major general election year. Who is taking advice from this cartoon character? Recently I’ve noticed an increase in sources calling for a recession in 2024. A lower value goods and services being produced and sold is usually an indication of bad things. Nobody knows when the next true slump is coming. I'm over 40. As for interest coming down, I think it won't come down meaningfully for a long time. Other than a potential China invasion of Taiwan, 2024 seems set for growth. However that’s not always the case and in recent history that’s been happening less. We don’t have mass unemployment right now. Inflation is coming down (currently sits in the 3. No recession, booming economy No recession, but economy won't grow much if at all Like the 2000s, 7% unemployment, gradual but sustained multi-year drop in stock market Like the late 1970s, 12% unemployment, inflation, 20-30% stock market drop Like 2008, 50% drop in markets, unemployment to 10% If you keep saying a recession is coming you will eventually be correct. P. So this is the irony of all this, despite economic growth dramatically slowing as forecasts say. First is we printed a huge amount of money during the pandemic. There is no doubt that a recession and market reset are needed in order to correct the imbalances in the economy. Economists say it is unlikely the U. There is always a recession comingand a recovery comingand a period of downturnand a period of upturn. That's why recession and interest rate pressure isn't really pushing down prices. Second is that the current administration has kept government spending as a percentage of GDP at the highest level it's ever been, apart from during Covid and the aftermath of the global financial crisis. GDP is a terrible measurement of quality of life. We are definitely in the back half of a business cycle and the credit cycle so a recession is coming but when is a big question and the answer can range from 6 months to 3 years. Maybe. We have written rules to support this aim and welcome those who want to learn and those who want to contribute. The best strategy is to buy and hold. A recession has been "coming" every year that banks have existed. “It’s hard to believe we aren’t in a recession, and I realize the numbers say we aren’t, it sure feels like one to me. So we'd have had three major recessions, 2008 and 2020 being historically large, since I graduated college. Please read the rules before posting, as we remove all comments which break the rules. We had one in 2008, one in 2020, and now we might have one in 2022. Forcing a recession would definitely solve that. But online you may be called an idiot by a computer ‘economist’. Just remove govt spending & inflation rate from the GDP, you pretty much see the economy has not even really growth. The USA has negative GDP for the past 2 quarters and that indicates a recession. It was a new era. Technical recession: 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The economy is not income but it is what determines whether we're in a recession or not, and the economy has not indicated that. The recession probability was up from 65% in November and has more than doubled over the last six months, the survey showed. Reply reply Where should I invest if I believe recession is coming? If you're 63 and have a crystal ball and know exactly when a recession is coming, then you should've cashed out ages ago so you could retire. 25% would do little, if inflation The guy in the video predicted the 2008 recession and mentioned that the economy is in a similar state to how it was in 2007. We are already in a recession. If you did not invest because of it, you lost a lot of potential earnings. Federal Reserve has to drive the stock market into a recession to curb inflation. But then 3rd quarter GDP came in and it was growth which means if we had used the standard definition we'd say it was a 6 month long recession and that it was already over--which kind of vindicates their decision. Recessions happen when it’s unexpected for most people or at least most people in charge. Some think it might happen again, while others aren't so sure. We already knew that the former was gonna have a recession after that massive run-up. We are just now coming up on 12 months. Supply inflation is caused by low supply and demand inflation is caused by high demand. In reality, the economic I see is already in recession. Well, of course there's a recession coming someday. A recession is coming but its more the fact August is always a quiet month, coupled with the extra rough weather weve had lately the rest of the month and well into mid/late september will be quiet Reply reply Timing the market is never a sound strategy. The same thing with climate change. There are two things in the market- Price correction and Time correction. They are trying to take money out of circulation. Welcome to Canada’s official subreddit! This is the place to engage on all things Canada. We had a small recession in 2008 and not since. It Reminder that we still haven’t “officially” entered a recession yet. So instead of crushing voters, corporations and the government through interest payments, they will choose to accomodate borrowers over lenders, to prolong the timeframe before a recession ensues. the unemployment rate is coming down retail sales is growing nicely inflation is coming up nicely industrial production is expanding housing starts are increasing historically these indicators were always flat or falling BEFORE every recession. S. When recessions happen and people are laid off, they cut back on spending on "wants" (like going to dinner at a restaurant) so they have enough money for "needs" (like buying pasta at a grocery store to cook at home). 15M subscribers in the wallstreetbets community. When it starts to go down a recession is coming. The market has started pricing in a recession and a recession usually hit 18 months after the the federal reserve tightens their monetary policy. If the question was "Immediately Before Recession, What Assets Hold Value the Best?" this would be a good answer, however no one can tell you when economic activities is going to peak. There was one in 2001, 2008, 2018, 2020 and every Be the first to comment Nobody's responded to this post yet. But I really don't see how we are not in a recession right now. It’s coming fast and The US has either been coming out of a recession, going into a recession, in a recession, or a recession is going to be happening "in the next year" There might be one or two years where we were actually good and people said hey. The thing is that if the recession hits now, the FED still won’t lower rates because of the inflation problem. The yield curve inverted in November of last year. Rule No. However, I do not believe that this will happen until interest rates rise significantly higher. The average interest rate (or even the median) since the 70's is about 7%. It wasn’t labeled as a recession for political reasons. The bull market has gone on for an unnaturally long 10 years. And a bull market after that. We’re due for one as a result of 2 years of slowed activity, now we are still due for that and due for a new recession from a war on fossil fuels and globalization level inflation. Get the Reddit app Scan this QR code to download the app now a recession is always coming, at all times forever. The sad part is that on the whole they are always wrong. Amazon founder and billionaire entreprenuer Jeff Bezos has advised the American people to avoid large purchases such as new TVs, refrigerators or cars and “keep some dry powder on hand” during the coming holiday season as the US economy is likely to be in a recession soon, according to a report in the CNN. A couple years from then no one will remember either way. Not sure about a Pokemon recession but a whole recession is likely. We could all be starving in the streets and not be in a recession. Not to mention the last jobs report came out better than expected. Please be respectful of each other when posting, and note that users new to the subreddit might experience posting limitations until they become more active and longer members of the community. Meaning stocks that dont have revenue and wont have any in the years to come. 2% of GDP growth), and some countries in EU are in a recession (Ireland, Austria, Denmark and others) while others aren't (Spain, Latvia, Poland and others) The title is correct. I would be pretty surprised if we have a recession now, it would be far more evident in the data. While interest rate increases have a risk to trigger a recession, we are currently not looking like we are trending towards one yet. Part of the problem is demand is still rising due to a good economy. Obviously the recession that seemed so obvious never appeared. . After more than two years in a bull market, the stock market is still surging. The culling of white collar jobs on the lower end of the spectrum means that there are thousands of unemployed Americans that are living on savings until they're forced into jobs that don't pay a living wage, so many of us are already living in a brutal recession with a government that could give two shits about the situation because the numbers need to look rosy for the next season of douche A recession is almost certainly coming. " You do not see the recession coming. Yes, recession seems to be around the corner, exports is crushed, job market is pretty soft. This recession is accompanied by consumers having cash still and corporate hiring is still good. Ppl don’t get that for the past decade inflation was almost nonexistent. The US dollar strength increasing impacts the rest of the world. Also pay me more, if we're not in a recession. And they tried their damndest to bring about a recession through simply convincing everyone it was coming. In an August 2024 report, J. When the market is doing well it is overbought. He knew the pandemic was coming, and that dire fiscal policy would lead to massive inflation, but worked in a tax hike on individuals to kick in right as the pandemic was over and we needed to calm the economy! The trades suffered during the recession around 2010, but my union (pipefitting) was booming, but ever since things picked back up he’s been working steady since 2015. A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which happened last year there. There’s a very good chance the next one will not. That sounds silly, but that's literally the truth. At the height of the great recession, people thought that stocks were doomed and yet SPY went from 600+ to 2. We've been seeing these super reliable recession indicators since late 2022. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There might be a recession, but it won't hurt as much as other recession. To actually fight inflation, the Fed would have to increase the FFR above the monthly increase in inflation. So there is a big difference. Their software platform, Clover Assistant helps physicians diagnose and treat chronic diseases earlier. Recessions are normal and expected parts of our economy so "yes," there will be a recession in the future but we don't know when. It's a very frivolous engineered statistic when the reality is that everybody is getting poorer bit because you can show that there's more money in the system then there's nothing wrong. The housing bubble won't pop because America doesn't have enough homes for everyone who wants one. Here's why it shouldn't affect your strategy. As such we are at like quarter 7 or 6 of the bad predictions. Morgan analysts revealed that Meanwhile, there's a 100% chance of articles coming out day after day saying the recession is here or will be here soon. 960 votes, 302 comments. “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves. US Fed is determined to bring inflation to the ground but raising rates only makes it worse in the medium to long term. 21% YTD, over 20% from the low last fall, and we are officially in a bull market. 71 subscribers in the wallstreetInvestment community. As in, a "receding hairline. During a recession there is liable to be a sell off, if this happens companies will be miss priced or over sold. However when people make recession addictions I think a reasonable time frame is two quarters. We might not get a recession this year or next year but it has been very rare. He is simply not competent with regards to economics and those who were keeping things going ok like Liu He have been pushed out. They will always tell you it’s going down. Recall that most of the industrialized world is suffering high inflation right now; it's not just a US phenomenon. Dec 27, 2024 路 SIFMA says nearly half of roundtable members believe the odds of a recession in 2025 to be 15% or less, while another third estimate that the likelihood of a recession is between 15% and 30%. Every year of my life was a "bubble" for something. Supply issues are defiantly taking longer than expected. ” - an experience shared that doesn’t use the term incorrectly “Oh bullshit, we’ve been in a recession since 2022” - incorrect use of the term recession, we simply haven’t been. Oct 1, 2024 路 Risks of a U. You can argue about wages vs. It's also worth noting - a "recession" is just two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinking. But now with the data on jobs still looking good, recession predictions are now for recession to start around from April to September 2024. The fed tried to bring them back up a few years after the recession but Wall Street had a fit, known as the Tamper Tantrum. Most ‘economists’ on Reddit do not believe a recession is possible. Nous parlons en anglais et en français. If that's how bad things are in a not-recession, just see what it's like in a real recession then. Covid stimulus overshot the mark. A recession will have a higher chance of happening in Q4 or Q1, and possibly even Q2 of next year as a result. It feels like recession is coming for five years already. With a recession just around the corner, is it a good idea to invest in the S & P 500 Index now or wait? the first thing that comes up when I search the topic is "The S&P 500 usually declines significantly during recessions; it fell as much as 55% during the Great Recession. There's no "well that's stupid that we define a recession like that! I'm experiencing financial hardship so this is a recession to me!" A recession is quite literally a "recession of the economy" where the general English definition of "recession" is a pull-back or contraction. After the 2008 recession the markets stayed flat for years after the recession was over. Job market remains robust (despite the many tech layoffs that we continue to see make headlines). There are two major reasons. Stats can be deceiving. Apr 12, 2024 路 Some Reddit users anticipate a looming recession, citing historical patterns and current economic indicators. Add your thoughts and get the conversation going. The economy may not be in recession, but, the amount of things I can buy is indeed in recession. "comes to mind. The best thing you can have going into a recession is cash. But it was rampantly predicted in all corners of the (right wing) country. lasagdkkqmkzruzhafumxncpjcnpxrnjxzkvcuznkvfgejgmqyceyonadllbenfossr